12.23.09

US Treasuries

Who said treasuries were safe!?  Yesterday turned our painful, deflation inspired, bullish bond forecast from painful to just plain insulting.  We don't see support in the 30-year until 115. TLT support at 7/27 low and Fib support near 90.

12.22.09

US Treasuries

Ouch!  The 30-year bond (and 10-year) breached the advancing trendline we've mentioned previously.  But with positive divergences in RSI, (TLT, too) it makes it hard to let go of long positions.  The bond dropped into a Fibonacci convergence zone yesterday so between that and the positive divergence in RSI we'll give this another day before tucking our tails between our legs and heading home.

12.18.09

US Treasuries

Patience and tenacity may have paid off as treasuries jumped up as the equity markets sold off yesterday.  The 10-year note stopped, not just at its advancing trendline, but at a point where the decline since 12/8 is 61.8% of the 11/27-12/4 decline.  Still targeting 122-122.5 on the 10-year, 105 for TLT.  CCM buy signal today on 10-year .

12.17.09

US Treasuries

Our bullish call on treasuries is hanging in there by the skin of its teeth.  We'll hold for another day.

12.16.09

US Treasuries

It's make it or break it time for treasuries.  The 10-year needs to hold its trendline to keep us long.

12.15.09

US Treasuries

The long bond and TLT both registered buy signals yesterday while BWI confirmed the downtrend in the 10-year.  During the past few months the 30-year and 10-year bonds have been out of synch with each other and TLT has been giving the same signals as the 10-year.  Now it looks like TLT wants to follow the 30-year bond.  We're confused by all this too.  Both TLT and the 30-year have formed swing pivots (bullish) over the last 3 days while the 10-year continues to struggle. At this point, hold TLT.

12.11.09

US Treasuries

Sloppy bond auctions both yesterday (10-year notes) and today's 30-year bond made for a difficult two days for bond holders.  TLT felt even worse than the two previously mentioned bond maturities.  Fib trendline model pointing to a potential bottom yesterday which would make sense given the 107 day cycle high expected today in equities.  BWI still in buy mode for all 10,30, and TLT.  Just waiting for buy trigger from RSI.  Won't take much.  Pretty much any move up should do it.  However, any close below yesterday's level would have me running for the exits.

12.09.09

US Treasuries

Despite stochastics and MACD rolling over, The ten-year note bounced just as the detrended oscillator and CCM predicted on 12/4/09.  BWI trying to rollover and could take out previous low in the next day or two so don't get in a hurry to buy.  Keep a close eye on this one.  Ditto for TLT.

12.08.09

US Treasuries

TLT held support yesterday and declining triangle, etc still targeting 101 but the pattern is starting to resemble a head and shoulders which would have negative implications.  A break of 92 would be "disturbing". 

11-30-09

U.S. Treasuries

Both the long-bond, as well as TLT, are solidly in buy modes.  The declining triangle in TLT indicates a minimum move to 101.00 and once resistance at 99 is penetrated the next level of resistance is not until just under 105.